On Monday, Anthropic filed to go public.
It plans to list on Nasdaq under the ticker ANT. The S-1 doesn't set a price yet, but reports put the valuation between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion.
If that holds, millions of Americans could own Anthropic within weeks, much of them through index funds.
What the S-1 revealed about Anthropic
Until now, Anthropic's revenue figures came from press reports. The S-1 gives us the company's own numbers, and they show how fast it has grown over the past year.
Revenue in the first half of 2026 was $16.3 billion, up from $1.2 billion in the same period last year.
Q2 revenue alone was $11.6 billion, more than Anthropic earned in 2023, 2024, and 2025 combined.
Net revenue retention was about 900% as of September 30, meaning customers who were paying a year ago now spend about nine times as much. A great software company is often happy at 120%.
Side note: You may have seen headlines screaming about Anthropic's $80.7 billion loss in the first half. Most of it, about $72 billion, is an accounting charge that grew as its valuation rose, not cash spent.
Why your index fund may buy ANT
An index fund copies a list of companies and buys whatever is on it, at whatever price it's trading.
Nasdaq-100 funds like QQQ will get there first. Under a rule Nasdaq adopted this year, a very large new listing can join the Nasdaq-100 after about 15 trading days. Anthropic could qualify easily. SpaceX joined about three weeks after its June listing.
The buying happens in stages. A new company enters the index at a small weight because only some of its shares can trade at first. SpaceX started at about 1%.
As lockups expire, employees and early investors can sell. The weight rises, and index funds can buy more.
For months after the IPO, index funds may keep buying more Anthropic at public prices, mostly at quarterly rebalances. Many of the newly tradable shares they absorb will come from people who got in while it was private.
Who has captured the growth (so far)
Hard to imagine today, but Anthropic was valued at about $4 billion in 2023. Anthropic is still growing fast, and public investors could do well from here.
But the run from $4 billion to $1.5 trillion or more went almost entirely to employees and accredited investors with access.
Anthropic is only about five years old. It stayed private this long because it could: private investors would fund it at almost any size, so it had no reason to list sooner.
More companies now wait until they're very large to list. The median venture-backed tech company that went public in 2024 had $218 million in revenue, more than four times the median since 1980.
Ramp, one of USVC's largest holdings, is a solid example. It reportedly passed $2 billion in revenue and raised at a $60 billion valuation recently, about where Anthropic was in March 2025. It hasn't filed to go public.
By the time most companies list, much of their growth has already happened.
Follow the AI money
To own the growth that happens before a company lists, you have to own the company while it's private. One place to look is the companies that grow when the AI labs do.
As the labs grow, they spend more on training their models, and the software those models write needs somewhere to run. Some of the companies on the other end of that are still private.
Supabase is the database many AI coding tools set up by default. As of June, Claude Code was the largest contributor to its growth this year. Supabase now says agents and AI tools create 70% of its new databases.
Mercor connects AI labs with the experts who help train their models. Its reported revenue more than doubled, to over $1 billion, after we invested at a $10 billion valuation. As AI labs spend more on training, some of that money reaches Mercor.
Both are bigger positions in USVC than Anthropic. We tend to put more into companies we think are earlier in their growth.
Worth noting: Private companies carry real risk, and any of these could fail.
Getting in
When Anthropic lists, millions of people may own it through index funds at $1.5 trillion or more.
Until ANT starts trading, USVC investors have exposure to Anthropic before its IPO, through a fund we invested in. As of September 30, 2026, it was about 1% of the fund.
USVC is evergreen, so an IPO doesn't force a sale. We can keep holding, or move part of the position into the liquid sleeve that supports quarterly repurchases, at the Board's discretion.
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— Ankur
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